(24 May 2018) – Take this for what it’s worth. It is, after all, coming from an old retired guy who recently made a dramatic decision. If push comes to shove and I am backed into a corner and forced to make a choice between becoming a Conservative or becoming a vegan, I know what I will do. I’d sooner swallow an orange yam than a blue Ford.
From a quick look at the Ontario election, it is apparent that lots of other people are thinking the same thing and coming to the same conclusion. Today’s CBC poll tracker tells the tale.
The poll tracker, designed by Eric Grenier, is the most reliable gauge of voting intentions you will find. I know this is true because it is finally producing a result I like and endorse. Also, it takes every opinion poll as it is released and amalgamates it with all the rest and comes up with a reasonably reliable projection.
Grenier now puts Ford Nation at 37.4%; NDP 35.8%; Liberals 21.1%; Green 4.3%; and all the others at 1.4%. It also puts the number of probable seats at 73 for Ford, 49 for the NDP, 2 for Liberals, and none for the Green Party or any of the others.
This tells me that here in Guelph, the miracle will not happen for Mike Schreiner this time around. A bitter pill for his supporters to swallow. It is also unlikely that Guelph will produce one of the two seats the Liberals might win. Another bitter pill, but this time for Sly Castaldi’s people. I can empathize. I’ve spent most of my political life swallowing bitter pills and know what they taste like.
My acceptance of these pills springs from my Scottish heritage. Scots start from the assumption that things will go badly. It’s why they eat the breakfasts they do. They guarantee that during the day no one will do them a graver injustice than they just did to themselves.
The other thing the poll tracker tells me is that the Guelph election is mirroring the province. It’s a contest between Ferraro and Mlynarz. To keep the Ford analogies going (they’re getting a bit tired), think of a race between an old Model T and a new Thunderbird.
I’ll share a little history book political trivia. In all my life I have only once voted for a winning candidate in a provincial or federal election. That was Derek Fletcher in 1990. I might have just done it again.
There are 124 electoral ridings in Ontario. To form a majority government, a party needs to win 63 of them. There is only one way for the voters in Guelph to stop Doug Ford from becoming our premier. That is by sending an MPP from another party and bumping up the number of seats it holds.
Local Liberal and Green partisans might not like to hear it, but this time around you only have one realistic option. Agnieszka Mlynarz.